I haven’t seen this diaried yet around here, so I thought I’d share it. A new poll released today by the Harvard Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump among young voters (18-29 years of age) by a whopping 32 points — 64%-32%. A poll they did back in April showed Biden with a lead of 19 points (56%-37%). In 2020, Biden won this group by a 24-point margin. This poll confirms what was being talked about a lot before Biden bowed out of the race: that young voters were not enthused about a choice between Biden and Trump. (Note: these figures are in a two-way match-up; but Harris’ lead is nearly the same — a 31-point lead — in a multiple-candidate match-up that includes third parties).
Some other highlights from the poll:
- Among young female voters, Harris leads Trump by 47 points (!): 70% to 23%.
- The poll found a significant enthusiasm gap between young Democrats and Republicans, with 74% of young Democrats saying they will "definitely" vote, compared to 60% of young Republicans. The share of young Republicans who said they will “definitely” vote dropped from 64% in the April poll. The IOP polling director told Morning Joe today that they never see drops like this — typically more young voters get enthused about voting the closer you get to the election.
- Harris is far outperforming Trump on key personal qualities and issues, with substantial leads in empathy (+33), relatability (+24), honesty (+22), climate change (+32), abortion (+31), health care (+26), and gun violence prevention (+25) among all young adults.
- Young voters have a favorable view of Harris and Walz and really. really don’t like the Republican ticket. Harris has a +5 favorability with this group (47% favorable vs. 42% unfavorable), while Trump is underwater by a massive -30 (31% favorable vs. 61% unfavorable). Tim Walz has a +14% favorability vs. JD Vance’s -28% favorability.
- Harris's job approval as Vice President has significantly improved, increasing from 32% in the Spring poll to 44% now.
- Young voters expressed strong support for progressive policies, with 74% favoring capping prescription drug prices and 59% supporting a nationwide law to legalize abortion.
- By wide margins, young voters view Harris as more empathetic (+34), more competent (+19), more relatable (+24), and more honest (+22). It’s also notable that they view Harris as being stronger than Trump (by 7 percentage points) — despite Trump trying to sell “strength” as a key part of his clearly failing brand.
"This poll reveals a significant shift in the overall vibe and preferences of young Americans as the campaign heads into the final stretch," said John Della Volpe, IOP Polling Director. "Vice President Harris has strengthened the Democratic position among young voters, leading Trump on key issues and personal qualities. Gen Z and young millennials' heightened enthusiasm signals a potentially decisive role for the youth vote in 2024."
Pretty amazing and reassuring numbers. As with any group of voters, the key will now be to get all of these young voters out to the polls!
Morning Joe did a segment on the poll this morning:
UPDATE
In case you’re wondering, the Harris-Walz campaign has an extensive outreach and GOTV strategy targeting young voters.
The campaign tells NPR that it plans to invest in new digital ads on campus and social media, double its youth organizing staff around the country, and launch a college campus tour in battleground states.
The initiatives will target young voters on 150 campuses across 11 states: Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire, Virginia, Minnesota and Nebraska.