A big hat tip to the ever vigilant Greg Dworkin with his Abbreviated Pundit Round-up this morning and the excellent link to the 2018 turnout ratio tweet by Evan Siegfried. This number has been getting reassessed every day and may yet continue to move higher. The US Election Project website has the current estimate for turnout at 49.2%.
Although the last time turnout was this high was 104 years ago, I think it is safe to say that this is really unprecedented, because of course many major blocks of new voters have been added over the decades. Any comparison across these different eras in US voting history starts to become an apple:oranges conundrum. Black people, women and 18 year olds are the largest groups that have demanded and acquired the vote (except where the GOP is still practicing Jim Crow policies with suppression).
Based on previous data from the United States Election Project, our history looks like this:
Note how close the 2018 midterm rate of 49.2% (so far) is to the 1996 general election rate of 51.7%. I’ve drawn the line when women began voting in 1920 and 18 year olds started in 1971. I’ve also noted the wars and the global influenza pandemic of 1918. All these factors impacted turnout on a permanent or temporary basis.
I’m sure there is much to be gained by analyzing more broadly and deeply but I remain impressed by the huge gain among 18-29 year olds. All I can say is that I’ve been watching them organize since March, marching with them, and it is now clear that Dem leaders (supported also by older voters) need to show this new generation how voting turns into social change on issues that matter most to them. This voter cohort must be given a place at the table if we want this edge to be repeated with discipline and regularity.
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- Voting is habit-forming: when young people learn the voting process and vote they are more likely to do so when they are older. If individuals have been motivated to get to the polls once, they are more likely to return. So, getting young people to vote early could be key to raising a new generation of voters.
- Young people are a major subset of the electorate and their voices matter:
- 46 million young people, ages 18-29, are eligible to vote, while 39 million seniors are eligible to vote
- Young people (ages 18-29) make up 21% of the voting eligible population in the U.S.
- Young people’s participation can influence election results.
- Involving young people in election-related learning, activities and discussion can have an impact on the young person’s household, increasing the likelihood that others in the household will vote. In immigrant communities, young voters may be easier to reach, are more likely to speak English (cutting down translation costs), and may be the most effective messengers within their communities.
Also, don’t miss the diary by Meteor Blades from 3 days ago.