This will be a short one; the maps speak for themselves. It is without doubt that Bernie Sanders’ two strongest demographics — white voters and young voters — have played a role in the 2016 Democratic primary. With that being said, how have these groups voted as a whole both nationally and in each state thus far? Below, we’ll map it out.
NON-HISPANIC WHITE VOTERS
White voters have been Sanders’ strongest racial demographic, but by no means are whites voters monolithic in terms of their voting patterns. Comprising 60.4% of the Democratic primary vote thus far, white voters have outpaced their share of the Obama Coalition in the 2012 general election (55%). In the 20 states that have voted thus far and that have exit polling, Sanders has won a plurality of white voters— 49.6% — compared to Clinton’s 48.3%.
49.62% - Sanders - 4,377,533
48.27% - Clinton - 4,258,949
2.11% - Other - 186,152
(Vote totals are approximate)
There are another dozen states where exit polling has not occurred. Most of these states are caucus states, and most of those are heavily-white states. Given the margins that Sanders won by in most of these states, it is likely — despite the relatively small numbers of people who participated in many of these states — that Sanders’ share of the national white vote would be anywhere from 51% to 52% of the vote.
The two notable exceptions are Arizona and Louisiana; however, the total white turnout in Washington would cancel out all of the white voters in Louisiana and most of the white voters in Arizona; the margins by which WA was won would also indicate that the margin among white voters for Sanders in WA would cancel out in its entirety the white Clinton voters in both LA & AZ. This would clear the way for Sanders’ margins among white voters in the remaining states to inflate his national share of the white vote by 1 to 2 percentage points more.
18-29 VOTERS
The youth vote has been considered to be a monolithic entity by pundits and the media, but it too varies considerably. Nevertheless, Sanders dominance with this demographic is sound and is the only reason he has been considered potentially viable at points during this primary. Currently 16.9% of the Democratic primary vote thus far, 18-29 year-olds are falling behind compared to their share of the 2012 Obama Coalition (23%).
70.52% - Sanders - 1,743,389
28.79% - Clinton - 711,781
0.69% - Other - 16,854
(Vote totals are approximate)
As noted above with white voters, there are a dozen states where exit polling was not available. Based on the same dynamics and corresponding regional trends, it is likely that Sanders’ share of the vote among this group would expand by another point or two at minimum when factoring in these states.
One hidden gem of hope for progressives in the 18-29 numbers by state is the fact that Sanders won respectable or commanding majorities of the vote even in states where strong majority-minority coalitions of young voters exist.
Sanders won the 18-29 vote in states where non-whites made up the following shares of the overall electorate:
- Tennessee (37%)
- Virginia (37%)
- North Carolina (38%)
- Illinois (41%)
- Florida (52%)
- Texas (57%)
- Georgia (62%)
- South Carolina (65%)
It’s very important to note that diversity skews younger; the numbers above are the share of the non-white vote for all age groups. This means that Sanders wins among these states’ 18-29 demographics were accomplished with an even more diverse electorate.
To put it into perspective: let’s use Georgia, a state where minority population has exploded and continues to do, and where a majority of those under the age of 18 are non-white. Assuming Georgia’s 18-29 electorate was just 35% white instead of 38% white (a very conservative estimate) and assuming that Sanders won 100% of the white 18-29 vote, Sanders would have still won 30% of the non-white (mostly black) vote. The reality is that Georgia’s 18-29 vote is likely even less white than in the scenario above and Sanders probably won closer to 85% of the white vote, meaning that he won closer to 40% of the non-white youth vote.
What does this mean for the future of Democratic politics? It means that the nature of identity politics as the primary glue of the modern Democratic Party will increasingly wither and that class reductionism - a more powerful and motivational force for many Millennials — will have a more prominent role in politics. The result will be a more economically-progressive Democratic Party than can be imagined today. The New Deal 2.0 that should have come full-circle following the Great Recession will instead come into chaotic and forceful bloom over the course of two decades; the resulting angst from the suppression of an entire generation’s standard of living and opportunity will force radical changes not just to platforms, but to policy and to the party structure itself. It will do so in ways that would have never occurred had establishment Democrats and Republicans acted in Millennials’ best interests following the Great Recession.
Bernie Sanders is a preview for things to come. Much like Goldwater showed up 15 years too early, Sanders has as well. Nevertheless, he has shown the youth a pathway forward and likewise, Millennials are showing America what to expect over the next 15 years.
Even in the cradle of the Deep South, large segments of white and non-white voters banded together around a common set of ideals and chose the philosophy of class reductionism over identity politics. It is no coincidence that the only two (likely three if you include Louisiana) states where Clinton won the youth vote are the only two (three) states where whites vote as Republican as blacks do Democratic; where the 18-29 vote is almost as polarized as their parents’ and grandparents’ votes are polarized; where the very worst type of identity politics (racism) still features most prominently in all facets of life.
To those who say “#BernieOrBust”, I say “#BideYourTime”. The change is coming. The wave is already being felt. Movements aren’t built in a day or a year or even an election cycle. Millennials were 15% of the vote in 2008, 20% in 2012 and on track to be 25% in 2016. You won’t get the candidate you want this time, but issues and movements are always bigger and more important than candidates and campaigns. The movement of a generation is just getting started.