The question about the 2016 party conventions and elections seems to be which party is going to create the biggest train wreck. In both parties, those controlling the party apparatus seem to be at odds with the individuals that actually make up their party and that they are supposed to be representing. The collision course in the Republican Party is well documented, probably because the media seem to agree with the party officials and the populist candidate is so far ahead that he can’t be ignored any longer.
The potential Democratic Party collision course is less well documented. My suspicion that the media and the Democratic Party officials seem to want Hillary to win is based on the way two sets of supposedly objective numbers are portrayed by the party and the media.
The first, is that in national match up polls, the only Democrat that is widely reported in these match ups is Hillary versus each of the Republican wannabes. The fact that in national polls Bernie beats all of the Republican candidates by a wider margin than Hillary is rarely reported and never emphasized.
The second, is that after Super Tuesday the delegate counts being presented are not just what each candidate has received from actual constituent votes, but many counts are adding in projected Super Delegate votes, which overwhelmingly favor Hillary and make her look much further ahead and harder to defeat than she actually is.
I agree that the Super Delegates may tip the scale in favor of Hillary, but herein lies the hidden landmine for the Democratic Party. Rewind to 1968 when the Democratic Party officials wanted Hubert Humphrey to be their nominee regardless of what their constituents wanted. The result was a party that became so fractured, and that alienated so many of the party voters, that it had no hope of winning the general election.
If in the end, when all 50 states have weighed in, the constituent vote goes to Bernie, and if the Democratic Party overrides their constituent vote using the Super Delegate procedure, the ingredients are there for a 1968 proportion convention disaster with the resulting weakened position going into the general election. The only difference this time is that the Republicans are on the same “entitled” versus “populist” collision course, so the general election may just come down to who has the bigger train wreck at their convention.
If the Democratic Party officials really want to win the general election, they need to start thinking now about their upcoming convention and how they are going to handle a potential situation where their Super Delegate vote could override their party’s popular vote and create that train wreck. Do they want Hillary so badly they are willing to risk fracturing the party, or should they start backing off and let the constituents select the Democratic candidate?
While I don’t expect to see the physical violence that erupted at the 1968 Democratic Convention, the disappointment and feeling of alienation that accompanies an election perceived as stolen by procedural slight-of-hand may have impacts on the Democratic Party support and future voter participation long past the 2016 elections. The Democratic Party officials may be able to win this battle over their party’s nominee, but they need to be aware that in doing so, just like in 1968, they may create a cynicism among their youthful and idealistic constituency that will create an apathy toward all elections and cause the Democratic Party to lose the war for years to come.