I do not share anyone’s optimism regarding early voting. We saw this before in 2020. I saw it first-hand here in very red Staten Island in 2020.
The very first day of early voting in 2020, the line at the early voting center stretched 3 blocks, on a cold, rainy morning. Prior to 2020, you could walk right in and be done in 5 minutes in any previous presidential election. I was filled with enthusiasm. I kept telling my wife that no one on this line is here because they’re voting for Trump. I really felt we were headed for an electoral tsunami in 2020. That didn’t happen.
The bigger canary in the coal mine for all of us should be the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election and how voting groups, specifically white educated suburban women, broke hard for Youngkin in the privacy of the voting booth.
There are 2 miscalculations I keep seeing on here and among my friends.
1. They seem to think that abortion is going to bring-out millions of women to vote for Democratic candidates, including Republican woman.
This simply isn’t the case. Yes, on single issue choices, the pro-choice law would win in a landslide. However, they’re going to the voting booth with a myriad of issues weighing on them.
Look at the latest polling data by gender, ethnicity and age group. Looks just like the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial race at the end and the squeaker that occurred in New Jersey.
2. The Youth Vote. What Youth Vote? There is no mythic 2022 youth vote that’s going to turn out in droves. I have been hearing the same arguments since 2012. “They don’t have land lines….the pollsters aren’t finding them...” “They care about climate change...” “They care about LBGTQ+ issues...” All of that is true and they don’t vote. They don’t turn out.
The reality is that there is no one to blame for this midterm except the voters. The choice is extremely clear. No amount of campaign dollars are needed to sway voters’ core belief systems. The fate of the country is in the hands of the voters.
I have a feeling we’re finally going to realize what kind of country we now are and where we’re headed and I’m actually at peace with it. I’ve done everything I can do (donate, volunteer, make phone calls, put up lawn signs, talk with people, etc)… Everyone knows what’s at stake.